{"id":1950,"date":"2026-06-11T20:38:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T20:38:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=1950"},"modified":"2026-06-11T20:38:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T20:38:01","slug":"super-el-nino-turns-worlds-weather-upside-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=1950","title":{"rendered":"Is It a Super El Ni\u00f1o Year? It Could Turn the World\u2019s Weather Upside Down"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><span class=\"lead-in-text-callout\">The wait is<\/span> finally over: El Ni\u00f1o has officially begun.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that the semiannual climate phenomenon has arrived. Congratulations if you took the pre-July 1 prediction on Kalshi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/polymarket-study-illegal-trades-offshore-billions\/\" class=\"text link\">Prediction markets<\/a> aren\u2019t the only places with a lot riding on El Ni\u00f1o. The phenomenon\u2014characterized by hotter-than-normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific\u2014has a huge impact on weather in nearly every corner of the globe. And with this year\u2019s iteration projected to be among the strongest ever recorded, the impacts are likely to be particularly acute.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">There are a handful of ways to measure El Ni\u00f1o, but NOAA\u2019s threshold hinges on temperatures being 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 C) above average for a three-month period in a specific part of the Pacific. (That area is dubbed NINO3.4 if you want to impress and\/or bore someone at a party.) The Pacific surpassed that threshold thanks to a rapid upswing in temperatures in record weeks. But there are other signs of El Ni\u00f1o, including a <a href=\"https:\/\/svs.gsfc.nasa.gov\/vis\/a030000\/a031300\/a031399\/sla_nrt_global_allsat_phy_l4_20260601.png\" class=\"text link\">surge in sea levels<\/a> of up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) in the eastern tropical Pacific, thanks to winds blowing from the west that cause water to pile up there.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The shift in ocean temperatures in turn influences the atmosphere regionally, which then has knock-on effects on weather around the globe, from increasing the odds of wet weather in the southwestern US to lowering the odds of an active <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/why-the-2026-hurricane-season-might-not-be-that-bad\/\" class=\"text link\">Atlantic hurricane season<\/a>. Drought also becomes more likely in places like Indonesia and the Sahel region of Africa. El Ni\u00f1o also releases extra heat into the atmosphere, warming the already-heating planet even further. In essence, El Ni\u00f1o is like the engine of a car: Fire it up and the atmosphere gets moving.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The key questions now are how strong this year\u2019s edition of El Ni\u00f1o will be and how that will affect its impacts. The answers appear to be \u201cvery\u201d and \u201cquite a bit.\u201d NOAA gives this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o a 63 percent chance of exceeding the 3.6-degree F threshold, which would qualify it as a super El Ni\u00f1o. But climate models are bullish that it could surpass that threshold by a wide margin. Some have it surpassing 5.4 F, which would make this the strongest El Ni\u00f1o on record.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">There have been four other El Ni\u00f1os that have reached the super threshold, and all led to widespread problems around the globe. To revisit the car analogy, if your average El Ni\u00f1o is like the engine in a Toyota Prius, a super El Ni\u00f1o is more akin to the one in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/i-like-ferrari-luce-ev-but-this-is-why-its-heartbreaking\/\" class=\"text link\">Ferrari Luce<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The 1982-83 event\u2014the first one in recorded history\u2014caused Lake Mead to overflow, while the 1997-98 version caused what was Indonesia\u2019s worst drought on record. The most recent iteration in 2023-24 caused Southern Africa&#8217;s worst drought in 100 years, leading to <a class=\"external-link text link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.fao.org\/climate-change\/news\/news-detail\/el-ni%C3%B1o-is-coming-for-agriculture.-here-is-where-the-risks-are-highest\/en&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fao.org\/climate-change\/news\/news-detail\/el-ni%C3%B1o-is-coming-for-agriculture.-here-is-where-the-risks-are-highest\/en\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">61 million people<\/a> requiring food assistance. All the heat in the ocean also fries coral reefs, which are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/the-earth-is-nearing-an-environmental-tipping-point\/\" class=\"text link\">already struggling to adapt<\/a> to the rising temperatures caused by burning fossil fuels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">And really, that\u2019s the other issue at play with what will happen with this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o. The world has never been hotter in human history. Pile an El Ni\u00f1o on and it\u2019s likely there will be a burst of warming in the pipeline for this year and next. If I was a betting person, I would definitely take the over on 2026 being among the hottest years on record.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/super-el-nino-turns-worlds-weather-upside-down\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The wait is finally over: El Ni\u00f1o has officially begun. On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that the semiannual climate phenomenon has arrived. Congratulations if you took the pre-July 1 prediction on Kalshi. Prediction markets aren\u2019t the only places with a lot riding on El Ni\u00f1o. The phenomenon\u2014characterized by hotter-than-normal waters in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[426,96,224,49,222],"class_list":["post-1950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-gadgets","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-el-nino","tag-environment","tag-weather"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is It a Super El Ni\u00f1o Year? It Could Turn the World\u2019s Weather Upside Down - Silvybrand Lifestyle Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"From a wet winter in Southern California to fewer Atlantic hurricanes, this is what to expect as a potential super El Ni\u00f1o takes shape.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=1950\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is It a Super El Ni\u00f1o Year? 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