{"id":2379,"date":"2026-06-19T09:39:08","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T09:39:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=2379"},"modified":"2026-06-19T09:39:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T09:39:08","slug":"prediction-market-philosophers-got-what-they-wanted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=2379","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Market Philosophers Got What They Wanted. They\u2019re Not Happy About It"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><span class=\"lead-in-text-callout\">On June 11,<\/span> Kalshi released a buzzy ad featuring noted New York Knicks fan Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet. It was a zeitgeist-capturing moment for prediction markets, akin to the 2022 Super Bowl, when seemingly every commercial featured a celebrity shilling crypto.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Yet when I brought Chalamet\u2019s spot up with attendees at <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/manifest.is\/\" class=\"external-link text link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/manifest.is\/&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/manifest.is\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Manifest<\/a>, a recent festival for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/tag\/prediction-markets\/\" class=\"text link\">prediction markets<\/a>, I was mostly met with blank stares. These conference goers\u2014a mix of academics, startup founders, job seekers, and players in the markets\u2014hadn\u2019t even heard about it. They were too busy thinking about the bigger picture and the risks facing markets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Their confusion was the perfect encapsulation of a battle that I observed again and again that weekend: The way forecasting philosophers see the markets (tools for the greater good) is very different from how the vast majority of the world sees them (a way to bet on sports).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">\u201cWe were all waiting for so long to be in the world we&#8217;re in now,\u201d Dan Schwarz, the cofounder and chief executive officer of FutureSearch, an artificial intelligence research and prediction startup, tells me. But the platforms have run into problems, from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/polymarket-insider-trading-cftc-michael-selig-interview\/\" class=\"text link\">insider trading<\/a> to sports contracts that, Schwarz worries, are fueling addiction. To outweigh these harms, \u201cprediction markets would have to deliver a lot more value than they are now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The prognosticators, it turns out, are concerned that the very thing that&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/big-interview-tarek-mansour-kalshi\/\" class=\"text link\">made prediction markets a global phenomenon<\/a> could be their undoing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">This year\u2019s iteration of Manifest took place at Lighthaven, an idyllic compound in Berkeley, California. The campus, which takes up about half a city block, also functions as the epicenter of the rationalist movement, which, among other things, prioritizes the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/backchannel-anthropic-dispute-with-the-pentagon\/\" class=\"text link\">safe development of AI<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/deaths-of-effective-altruism\/\" class=\"text link\">effective altruism<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The vibe skewed heavily male but was still eclectic. Clusters of twenty- and thirty-somethings huddled over laptops in the Tudor-style main house, and someone told me I looked like a guy who would have a stick of gum. Talks about markets jostled for attention alongside sessions about the odds that AI will kill us all and lessons on how to optimize your sex life. There was a furry meetup and watch parties for the first US World Cup match and game 5 of the NBA Finals. (I couldn\u2019t find anyone who had put money on either event, though a few attendees told me they knew of folks who had made bank.) There were markets on play-money platform Manifold about the festival itself, like whether someone would break a bone (<a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/manifold.markets\/strutheo\/will-someone-break-a-bone-at-a-mani\" class=\"external-link text link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/manifold.markets\/strutheo\/will-someone-break-a-bone-at-a-mani&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/manifold.markets\/strutheo\/will-someone-break-a-bone-at-a-mani\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">still unresolved<\/a>) and whether Caroline Ellison would show up (<a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/manifold.markets\/ConnorTabarrok\/will-caroline-ellison-attend-manife\" class=\"external-link text link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/manifold.markets\/ConnorTabarrok\/will-caroline-ellison-attend-manife&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/manifold.markets\/ConnorTabarrok\/will-caroline-ellison-attend-manife\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">yes<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Still, the broader background conditions were wildly different from previous years. Though Kalshi and Polymarket had sponsored the event in past years, they were AWOL this year. Both companies declined to comment on the change. Last year, Kalshi held a session on sports markets, which it had launched just six months earlier. This year, the companies are facilitating billions of dollars in sports trades during an especially friendly political era at the national level.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Sports were also conspicuously absent during a session on strategies for mastering markets around world events and politics. I caught up with David Bensoussan, the session\u2019s organizer, who has made $1.6 million in profits on the platform, under the boughs of one of Lighthaven\u2019s trees.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">\u201cThe truth-seeking mechanism that prediction markets can have in terms of predicting things and making the population more informed\u2014what on Earth does that have to do with sports?\u201d he asks, wrapped in a blanket to ward off the chill of Bay Area shade.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/prediction-market-philosophers-got-what-they-wanted\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On June 11, Kalshi released a buzzy ad featuring noted New York Knicks fan Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet. It was a zeitgeist-capturing moment for prediction markets, akin to the 2022 Super Bowl, when seemingly every commercial featured a celebrity shilling crypto. Yet when I brought Chalamet\u2019s spot up with attendees at Manifest, a recent festival for prediction [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2380,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[99,550,656,414,415],"class_list":["post-2379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-gadgets","tag-california","tag-digital-culture","tag-kalshi","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Prediction Market Philosophers Got What They Wanted. They\u2019re Not Happy About It - Silvybrand Lifestyle Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Getting the future right is now big business. 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