{"id":5645,"date":"2026-08-17T22:10:13","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T22:10:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=5645"},"modified":"2026-08-17T22:10:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T22:10:13","slug":"what-el-nino-means-weather-water-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=5645","title":{"rendered":"What Is El Ni\u00f1o? Here\u2019s What It Means for Weather, Water, and Global Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

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El Ni\u00f1o looks<\/span> to reach an intensity unprecedented in recorded history.<\/p>\n

Characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> occurs every few years. Meteorological agencies and researchers around the world are on high alert because when the heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere, it triggers a chain reaction that affects rainfall, temperatures, and even hurricane activity around the world.<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> has gained strength at an exceptional speed, and it will wreak havoc on everything from fisheries<\/a> to ski seasons. Not all impacts are bad\u2014the parched Southwest, for example, is likely to see more winter precipitation\u2014but anticipating them is the key to being prepared.<\/p>\n

What exactly is happening now, and what might happen in the coming months? Read on to understand what El Ni\u00f1o is, why this one might be a super El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>, and where its impacts will be most acutely felt.<\/p>\n

What Is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Declaring El Ni\u00f1o requires meeting a certain threshold of oceanic heat in the Pacific. Specifically, a region known as NINO3.4. It\u2019s an area that sits between NINO3 and NINO 4 if you want to geek out even more. In plain language, it\u2019s a region in the eastern-central tropical Pacific.<\/p>\n

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses the three-month average sea surface temperature of the region to determine if an El Ni\u00f1o is in effect. If the ocean is 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal for three overlapping three-month periods, it\u2019s officially an El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Other weather agencies do things a little differently. Japan\u2019s Meteorological Agency monitors a slightly different region using its own criteria, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology\u2019s threshold has an atmospheric component as well.<\/p>\n

In addition to warmer oceans, the trade winds that blow from east to westr also weaken. That allows seawater to pile up on the eastern side of the Pacific. In 1997 and 2015\u2014when El Ni\u00f1o events were among the strongest on record\u2014sea levels rose more than 18 centimeters (7 inches) above average.<\/p>\n

All this increases the odds of shifts in weather around the world. There\u2019s the aforementioned increase in rainfall in the Southwest as well as a corresponding decrease in Pacific Northwest precipitation. Atlantic hurricane season tends to be milder as well, with fewer storms.<\/p>\n

Indonesia sees an increased risk of drought as do parts of southern Africa. El Ni\u00f1o also tends to raise the odds winter warmth in Japan and parts of Australia and Brazil. It\u2019s important to note that El Ni\u00f1o tilts the odds of certain weather because it\u2019s not the only phenomenon weighing on what happens in a given day or given season.<\/p>\n

What Is a Super El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Super El Ni\u00f1o isn\u2019t an official term any meteorological agency uses, but scientists generally use it define any event where temperatures by a least 2 degrees Celsius above average. While there\u2019s no standardized definition, four particular El Ni\u00f1os are ones that check the super box: 1982\u201383, 1997\u201398, 2015\u201316, and 2023\u201324.<\/p>\n

When the Super El Ni\u00f1o occurred in 1982\u201383, the Colorado River basin in the US was hit by record-breaking heavy snowfall. Combined with high spring temperatures and rainfall, the river\u2019s flow exceeded 1.5 times the average. Reservoirs upstream filled to capacity one after another, forcing emergency releases, and Lake Mead also reached near-capacity, causing water to overflow from the Hoover Dam spillway for the first time in about 40 years. As a result, the basin suffered significant flood damage. In other words, the impacts of El Ni\u00f1o that may be \u201cgood\u201d can still lead to bad outcomes.<\/p>\n

In 1997\u201398, Indonesia was hit by the worst drought in the past half-century, while the 2023-24 super El Ni\u00f1o contributed to the worst drought in over 100 years for southern Africa. Conditions were so extreme that approximately 61 million people needed humanitarian aid.<\/p>\n

How Is This El Ni\u00f1o Shaping Up?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

There is a greater than 90 percent probability of this El Ni\u00f1o becoming \u201cvery strong\u201d this fall and winter, according to NOAA.<\/p>\n

Modeling by Berkeley Earth shows that median temperatures for the NINO3.4 region could reach 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal\u2014even after accounting for the effects of long-term global warming. This would exceed the all-time high recorded during the 2015\u201316 El Ni\u00f1o by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. Given that the difference between the strongest and fifth-strongest El Ni\u00f1o events over the past 150 years was only about 0.5 degrees Celsius, this represents an exceptional level of warming.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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El Ni\u00f1o looks to reach an intensity unprecedented in recorded history. Characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, El Ni\u00f1o occurs every few years. Meteorological agencies and researchers around the world are on high alert because when the heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere, it triggers […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5646,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[426,224,860,427,222],"class_list":["post-5645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-gadgets","tag-climate","tag-el-nino","tag-extreme-heat","tag-extreme-weather","tag-weather"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Is El Ni\u00f1o? 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