{"id":642,"date":"2026-05-21T16:06:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:06:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=642"},"modified":"2026-05-21T16:06:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:06:09","slug":"why-the-2026-hurricane-season-might-not-be-that-bad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=642","title":{"rendered":"Why the 2026 Hurricane Season Might Not Be That Bad"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><span class=\"lead-in-text-callout\">Atlantic hurricane season<\/span> is almost upon us and the early signs indicate it might be less active than usual. But that\u2019s no reason to delete your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/ai-has-flooded-all-the-weather-apps\/\" class=\"text link\">weather app<\/a> and ignore the forecast.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/tag\/noaa\/\" class=\"text link\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a> is predicting eight to 14 named tropical systems, of which three to six will become hurricanes and one to three will be Category 3 or higher.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">\u201cWhat\u2019s driving this forecast is largely an El Ni\u00f1o event,\u201d said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Characterized by a tongue of hot water stretching across the Pacific, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/get-ready-for-a-year-of-chaotic-weather-in-the-us\/\" class=\"text link\">El Ni\u00f1o is likely to emerge<\/a> this summer. That stretch of warm ocean rearranges weather patterns around the world. In the case of the tropical Atlantic, El Ni\u00f1o stirs up winds that make it hard for hurricanes to spin up. Those that do can sometimes be torn apart by what\u2019s going on in the upper atmosphere. (The opposite is true in the Pacific, and NOAA is predicting a very active season in that ocean basin.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">During the three past super El Ni\u00f1os, accumulated cyclone energy\u2014a metric that factors in storms\u2019 strength and longevity\u2014was well below normal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">That said, El Ni\u00f1o, even an extremely strong one, is only one of many factors that impact hurricane season. Hot local ocean temperatures can help storms form and gain strength, and the Atlantic is currently warmer than normal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">At the same time, Sahara dust can gum up the atmosphere and inhibit storms from forming. It\u2019s also notoriously hard to predict when plumes of it will kick up. That\u2019s what happened last year, when a below-average number of named storms formed despite an active forecast. Despite the lower-than-expected activity, last year still spawned <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/climate-change-made-hurricane-melissa-four-times-more-likely-study-suggests\/\" class=\"text link\">Hurricane Melissa<\/a>, one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall in the Atlantic basin.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">All of which is to say that the seasonal forecast is a handy guide for what to expect, and it\u2019s great for federal and state agencies to preposition supplies and resources. But it\u2019s what happens with individual storms that ultimately matters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">\u201cEven though we\u2019re expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it\u2019s important to understand it only takes one,\u201d Jacobs said, noting that even in quiet years, Category 5 storms have still made landfall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The Trump administration has slashed staffing at NOAA and reduced the collection of some data, such as weather balloons, that can impact forecasts. Jacobs touted the value of new observations, including aerial drones that will be deployed operationally for the first time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">NOAA has also ramped up the use of artificial intelligence weather models trained on historical data. During the 2025 hurricane season, the agency tested an <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2025\/nov\/16\/google-deepmind-hurricane-forecast\" class=\"external-link text link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2025\/nov\/16\/google-deepmind-hurricane-forecast&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2025\/nov\/16\/google-deepmind-hurricane-forecast\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">experimental hurricane model<\/a> developed with Google DeepMind. Late last year, it also rolled out a suite of AI weather models to use in operational forecasting, in addition to traditional weather models that use equations to forecast the weather.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The agency <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models\" class=\"text link\">says<\/a> that the AI version of its flagship model provides better prediction of the tracks of tropical cyclones\u2014the generic name for hurricanes\u2014though it lags traditional weather models in predicting their intensity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/why-the-2026-hurricane-season-might-not-be-that-bad\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Atlantic hurricane season is almost upon us and the early signs indicate it might be less active than usual. But that\u2019s no reason to delete your weather app and ignore the forecast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting eight to 14 named tropical systems, of which three to six will become hurricanes and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":643,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[96,224,49,223,222],"class_list":["post-642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-gadgets","tag-climate-change","tag-el-nino","tag-environment","tag-hurricanes","tag-weather"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why the 2026 Hurricane Season Might Not Be That Bad - Silvybrand Lifestyle Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The impending arrival of El Ni\u00f1o will help keep the number of storms low. 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