{"id":8167,"date":"2026-10-06T12:10:29","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T12:10:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=8167"},"modified":"2026-10-06T12:10:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T12:10:29","slug":"el-nino-planetary-wave-kelvin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/silvybrand.com\/?p=8167","title":{"rendered":"The planetary wave headed for California isn\u2019t what you think it is\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"


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A rather strong \u201cplanetary wave\u201d recently slammed into South America and is making its way toward California. In case you\u2019re worried about headlines warning of the supposedly \u201cfreak<\/a>\u201d phenomenon \u201cbringing trouble<\/a>,\u201d it\u2019s worth understanding what this wave really is and isn\u2019t<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Called a Kelvin wave, it\u2019s carrying warm water to the Americas that\u2019s typically trapped farther west. That\u2019s raising sea levels along already vulnerable coastlines. These kinds of waves are common. When they do arrive, they can exacerbate existing problems. And this particular Kelvin wave could have more dramatic consequences than usual.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But \u201cIf you\u2019re going to be out there looking for it, you\u2019re not going to see it,\u201d says Richard Seager, a research professor at Columbia University\u2019s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIf you\u2019re going to be out there looking for it, you\u2019re not going to see it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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A photo accompanying The New York Times<\/em>\u2019 reporting<\/a> on the Kelvin wave, depicting a surface wave smashing into someone\u2019s beachfront condominium, is misleading, he notes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says a Kelvin wave is more like \u201cwaves in your bathtub, which slowly slosh around<\/a>.\u201d Water levels rise and fall in peaks and valleys, but they\u2019re not breaking violently against a shore.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Kelvin waves are a typical signal of an El Ni\u00f1o, although they can also take place during other phases of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation<\/a> (ENSO) pattern. During other phases, trade winds over the Pacific Ocean push warm waters near South America westward toward Asia. That causes an \u201cupwelling,\u201d pulling cooler water from below up toward the surface of the ocean along the equator. As a result, the eastern equatorial Pacific is typically cool, while the western equatorial Pacific is warm.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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During an El Ni\u00f1o, those trade winds die down, allowing the warm water that piled up in the western Pacific to flow back east in the form of a Kelvin wave. It also slows down the upwelling, limiting how much cold water can reach the surface. Traveling east along the equator, the Kelvin wave hits Peru and Ecuador first before bouncing off the coast and moving north toward British Columbia and south toward Chile. The phenomenon causes temporary sea level rise, usually between 6 to 12 inches.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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We\u2019re also in the midst of a \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> that\u2019s expected to be one of the strongest on record because of how warm sea surface temperatures are getting. Temperatures in the eastern Pacific reached 5 degrees Celsius above normal on October 4th. \u201cThat is whopping big,\u201d Seager says. \u201cAs you would expect for a big El Ni\u00f1o event, it\u2019s going to be a big, powerful Kelvin wave.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Every inch of sea level rise can heighten the risk of flooding during storms and high tides. El Ni\u00f1o can push the North Pacific storm track southward, bringing more storms into Southern California, Seager explains. California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared<\/a> a state of emergency in September to prepare for a particularly severe El Ni\u00f1o this season. Rising sea levels with climate change are already inundating seaside roads<\/a>, railways, and neighborhoods<\/a> in California.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIf you already don\u2019t have a lot of infrastructure that is built to protect your community and your coastline, you\u2019re going to feel it \u2026 because 6 to 12 inches is not trivial,\u201d says Emily Yam, senior director of learning and public engagement at the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach, California.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The extra warm water also has consequences for marine life. El Ni\u00f1o can be an exciting time to go fishing and whale watching, with many warm water-loving species traveling farther north than they typically would. NOAA notes<\/a> that a 151-pound striped marlin broke a state record when it was caught in August off the coast of Washington. There have also been unusual sightings of hammerhead sharks and devil rays<\/a> recently in Southern California.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Unfortunately, hotter temperatures also put stress on coastal ecosystems. Yam says scientists are bracing for a potential die off of California\u2019s iconic kelp forests<\/a>. They thrive in temperatures around 50 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit, but the water has reached well into the 70s lately. The Kelvin wave is piling hot water into an area already suffering from a marine heatwave since May of last year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The temporary sea level rise is expected to linger through the start of winter. El Ni\u00f1o, which began in June<\/a>, is forecast to weaken rapidly going into 2027<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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